Bellwether

Definition:

Main Entry: bell·weth·er
Pronunciation: \ˈbel-ˈwe-thər, -ˌwe-\
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English, leading sheep of a flock, leader, from belle bell + wether; from the practice of belling the leader of a flock
Date: 13th century

: one that takes the lead or initiative : leader; also : an indicator of trends

There has been a lot of punditry based on bellwether states in this election cycle. I went to good old Wikipedia to see exactly which states are the bellwether states, and which ones went for my girl. Here's what Wiki said:

In the United States, Missouri, often referred to as the Missouri bellwether, has produced the same outcome as the national results in every presidential election beginning in 1904, except in 1956. The American bellwether states are [1]:

* Missouri - 1 miss (1956) from 1904 on, perfect since 1960
* Nevada - 1 miss (1976) from 1912 on, perfect since 1980
* Tennessee - 1 miss (1960) from 1928 on, perfect since 1964
* Ohio - 2 misses (1944, 1960) from 1896 on, perfect since 1964
* Delaware - 2 misses (2000, 2004) from 1952 on, perfect from 1952 to 1996
* The three states of Alabama, New Mexico, and Ohio - the candidate that wins at least 2 of them, perfect since 1912 (when New Mexico became a state)


Now, here is what the results of the primaries look like:

Missouri: Barack Obama
Nevada: Hillary Clinton
Tennessee: Hillary Clinton
Ohio: Hillary Clinton
Deleware: Barack Obama
The hat trick states: 2/3 for Hillary (NM & OH), 1/3 for Barack (AL)


You know I want my girl to be at the top of the ticket. But I think that these bellwether states can't be counted on. Sure, the only perfect record that exists amongst the bellwethers is the trifecta -- and Hillary won that. Eh, I just don't get my hopes up.

I thought maybe I'd look at which way the states went in 2000, when Bush got in even though the popular vote went to Al Gore. That offered me no help. All the bellwethers went to the dark side, I mean the republican party, except for DE (which went for Barack) & NM (which went for Hillary).


How about 2004 you might ask? Yeah, doesn't that look familiar? Only Deleware went for Kerry out of our bellwethers. The rest, including New Mexico, went for Bush.

Do I know what any of this means? I kind of think it is like reading tea leaves. Maybe Aunty Priscilla can have a go at it. She learned a lot of cool tricks on her travels including palm reading, reading tea leaves and tarot reading. But I think anybody who travels around the world just using her wits for currency would have to be open to unusual skills to make it. She's got some amazing stories. And can read your tea leaves.

People don't pay attention to history any more. George W. Bush broke the rules of history when he was elected and then re-elected. All bets are off. The election this year will be a history making one no matter which way it goes.

Next time Hillary is in town, I'm having Aunty Priscilla and her over for tea.